Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack
Premium Plays
Matchup: S. Florida at Syracuse
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: S. Florida (-6 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Usf over SYRACUSE - The Bulls have won all 4 outscoring the Orange 140-33. LY the Bulls allowed SU 208 yds on 38 plays in the 1H, but just 0 yds in 18 plays in the 2H. The last time USF played here we used them as our ‘07 College GOY and they rolled 41-10 (-16’). The Bulls lost QB Grothe and now rFr Daniels (PS#75) is making his 2nd road start after facing FSU’s fastest defense ever. He delivered in his hometown with a 17-7 win over #18 FSU producing 341 of USF’s 368 yds ttl off and now looks to replace Grothe’s #’s vs Syr (983 yds and 9 TD’s L3Y). Syr defeated Maine 41-24 LW despite being outgained 430-385 as they trailed 17-10 in the 3Q before scoring 31 straight points. SU is at .500 for the 1st time in 3Y. QB Paulus (PS#4) is avg 222 ypg (68%) with a 6-4 ratio while the run game is avg just 99 ypg (3.1). The Syr D is all’g 83 rush ypg (Penn St 78), but has all’d 311 ypg pass (66%) and have notoriously had trouble with mobile QB’s. USF has the offensive edge (#49-90) and def edge (#23-85). USF is just 3-7 as an AF but SU is 4-8 as a HD.
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Matchup: Clemson at Maryland
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Clemson (-12 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Clemson Over MARYLAND - In last meeting here, CU RB Davis guaranteed a win over a banged up MD team and CU dominated. The visitor has won 4 straight (3 decided by 4 or less). LY the Tigers held the Terps to 74 1H yds but were outscored 14-0 in the 2H. Last time here Clemson led 30-3 in the 4Q. MD is 6-16 vs CU but upset #20 Clemson 20-17 on the road LY. Clemson has a bye next week. MD is 6-4 as a HD (lost LW vs Rutgers). MD has committed 13 TO’s in 4 gms and is 1-3 for the 1st time S/’97. QB Turner is avg 243 ypg (60%) with a 4-5 ratio. CU had some missed opportunities LW and came up short vs #11 TCU and the Tigers have lost 7 of their L/8 by a TD or less. QB Parker is avg 179 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. CU does have a lot of speed in Spiller and Ford and the defense is an improving aspect.
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Matchup: Toledo at Ball State
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Toledo (-4 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Toledo Over BALL ST - Toledo is the 3rd MOST exp team in the country and Ball St is the 2nd least. LY Ball dominated 31-0 and the Cards have won the L/3 by an avg of 31-12. After going undefeated in the reg ssn LY Ball St is 0-4, but has covered the L/2 as a dog incl LW vs Aub (+32). The Cardinals were only outFD’d 21-19 but were outgained 560-260. QB Page is avg 127 ypg (48%) with a 3-5 ratio. He is playing behind an inexperienced OL, which has given up 10 sks already after giving up just 14 LY. RB Lewis who led the MAC in rushing LY (124 ypg) has just 185 yds (46.2 ypg). LW Toledo led FIU 17-3 at the half but had to hold on despite a 566-372 yd edge. UT QB Opelt has thrown for over 300 yds in 3 of 4 gms. He is avg 321 ypg (58%) with a 9-4 ratio and has rushed for 127 (7.0). UT’s top rusher is Collins with 360 (6.5). Toledo is 0-4 as an AF (none S/‘06) but Toledo’s offensive edge (#44-113) is just to big for Ball St to get past.
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Matchup: Temple at E.Michigan
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Temple (-6 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Temple over E MICHIGAN - EM is 0-4 SU vs Temple with 4 single digit losses. LY EM QB Schmitt set school records (50 of 76, 484 yds) in a 55-52 loss as the tms comb for 49 pts in the 4Q. However, Schmitt suffered a knee inj vs Mich and is OFY. They benefitted from a bye as it gave them a chance to prep either true frosh Alex Gillett (PS#194) or Kyle McMahon (PS#288), who had 2 starts LY. This is Temple’s 1st trip to Ypsilanti in MAC play. Temple has the large def edge (#57-116) but is in the unfamiliar role of a conf AF (0-1). EM is 1-5 ATS as a HD vs non-Mich MAC teams. TU is led by QB Charlton, who is avg 206 ypg (51%) with a 3-4 ratio and RB Pierce with 184 yds (5.6). While several MAC teams have lost key players, Temple shows that they finally have the depth to compete in the MAC.
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Matchup: Kansas State at Iowa State
Time: 3:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Kansas State (+3 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Kansas St (+) Over Iowa St (Kansas City) - B12 opener for both. K-St is 12-3 vs ISU winning by 27 ppg. Snyder did drop his L/2 to the Cylcones who are on a 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) run. The HT has won 4 straight but this is in KC and the Wildcats should have the crowd edge. K-St has 2 wins vs FCS tms but did outFD UCLA 19-16 on the road. QB Coffman is avg 171 ypg (58%) with a 2-4 ratio but the offense goes through RB Thomas who has 433 yds (4.8, 3 100+ yd gms). LW, Paul Rhoads became the 1st ISU HC to start 3-1 in his rookie ssn S/’31. QB Arnaud is avg 156 ypg (55%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Robinson (3 straight 100+) has 453 yds (5.7). Both tms lost their BCS non-conf gms as expected and K-St led ULL late. ISU has dropped 9 straight B12 gms (3-6 ATS) and K-St has the coaching edge and the better def (#43-97).
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Matchup: W. Michigan at No. Illinois
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: W. Michigan (+7 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
W Michigan (+) Over N ILLINOIS - The last 3 meetings have been decided by an avg 3 ppg with WM winning all 3. LY RB West had a career best 175 yds (7.0) rushing in a 29-26 win. The Huskies suffered a letdown LW, as they lost to Idaho 34-31 a week after upsetting Purdue. NI was outgained 477-312 but came up just short. WM trailed Hofstra 7-0 and 10-3 before scoring 21 unanswered pts and finished with a 471-329 yd edge. WM QB Tim Hiller is avg 262 ypg (66%) with an 8-3 ratio, while West leads with 296 yds (4.2). NI QB Chandler Harnish is avg 169 ypg (66%) with a 5-1 ratio, while RB Me’co Brown leads with 377 (6.0). NI is 1-7 ATS as a conf HF but are 3-1 ATS and should finally be on the winning side of a close game.
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Matchup: Air Force at Navy
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Air Force (+3.5 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Air Force (+) Over NAVY - AF was 19-2 vs Navy from ‘82-‘02, but has lost a series high 6 straight (5 outright upsets) by just a comb 33 pts. AF has, however, outgained Navy in 4 of the 6 gms. LY Navy got 2 blocked punts returned for TD’s to pull out a 33-27 win (+6) on the road. AF did have 411-244 yd and 20-13 FD edges. TY Air Force has been impressive going 3-1 and leads the nation in rushing with 319 ypg (4.8). LW QB Dietz got his 1st career st in a 26-14 win over SDSt in which AF had a +6 TO margin including 2 defensive TD’s. Meanwhile, Navy is coming off a disappointing win against WKU in which they gave up 434 yds. Navy QB Dobbs is the leading rusher with 294 yards (3.0) and 9 TD’s. This is AF’s 3rd road game in 4 wks and is sandwiched between two MWC gms. However, Navy is the most important game on the AF schedule as the winner has won the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy the L/12Y and this game will come down to the wire (5 of L/6 decided by TD or less).
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Matchup: Tulsa at Rice
Time: 7:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Tulsa (-15 -110)
Line Source: MIRAGE
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Tulsa over RICE - The last meeting here, Tulsa (-13’) barely escaped a fired up Rice team 48-43 (Rice 700-592 yd edge). LY, TU outscored Rice 42-14 in the 2H for a 63-28 home win vs a potent Owl offense. Tulsa is just 6-9 ATS as an AF, but is on a 9-3 run as a DD fav (2-0 TY). This is also Tulsa’s 4th road game in 5 weeks, but they have a bye on deck and are off a 56-3 waxing of FCS Sam Houston St. Rice is 17-6-1 as a HD and went 5-1 ATS at home LY, but that was with a much more experienced squad. They lost 36-17 to Vandy (+7) in that role LW. That game was actually tied at the half, but Vandy scored 20 straight pts in the 2H. QB Fanuzzi, who splits snaps with Shepherd, DNP LW (shldr, check status). Tulsa has all the edges (off #33-112, D #59-112, ST #23-46). While some of the angles point to Rice, TU usually puts the hammer down against weaker foes, and already has covered their 2 road fav roles by 10 and 17 points.
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Matchup: Oklahoma at Miami (FL)
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Miami (FL) (+7.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
MIAMI, FL Over Oklahoma - In the last meeting in ‘07, UM was mauled, being outgained 411-139 and outFD’d 25-7. Under Stoops, OU is 11-3 vs BCS non-conf tms in the reg ssn w/an avg score 39-23. UM is 8-1 at home vs current non-conf BCS teams winning by 21 ppg. OU is off a bye while UM just played GT and VT. UM looked very impressive up until LW (handcuffed by the Hokie def with just 209 yds) and are led by QB Harris who is avg 269 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. OU has pitched B2B shutouts vs weaker foes but did hold BYU to just 14 pts. QB Jones has filled in nicely for Bradford, avg 224 ypg (61%) with a 9-3 ratio. OU has the better def (#2-21) but the OL edge goes to the ‘Canes as they face a QB in his 1st road start in the heat/humidity of FL and need to refocus facing another tough ranked opp here.
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Matchup: Colorado State at Idaho
Time: 10:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Idaho (+4 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
IDAHO (+) over Colorado St - It’s the 3rd year of the Akey era at Idaho and the Vandals are riding high as they are off to a 3-1 start, their best since S/’94. The Vandals’ 3 wins TY equal their combined total for ‘07 and ‘08. UI is on an 8-2 ATS run (4-0 TY) after ending a 3-17 drought. UI QB Enderle is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 5-2 ratio including 18-27 for 270 yds and 3 TD’s LW vs NI and he has spread the ball around to 10 different receivers. CSU QB Stucker is avg 237 ypg (55%) with a 6-5 ratio and he was 30-50 for 372 yds and 2 TD’s LW. CSU had a 6 gm win streak snapped LW to BYU but the Rams are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less under HC Fairchild and are on a 5-2 ATS run. While Idaho is perfect in the ATS column, they are a fundamentally sound team that can finally use their unique home edge of the Kibbie Dome.
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Member Plays
Matchup: Memphis at Central Florida
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Memphis (+7.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT
Memphis (+) Over UCF - The Tigers have been outscored 94-37 in the L/2 gms at UCF. Memphis is 16-27 SU on the road under West and UCF is 8-4-1 ATS in Bright House Networks Stadium and has a bye on deck. The Knights are coming off a 19-14 loss at EC (outgained 403-336). QB Hodges will be making his 3rd start and is avg 174 ypg (63%) with a 4-5 ratio (threw 4 int LW). RB Harvey leads with 317 yds, but is avg just 3.7 ypc. Memphis also has a QB making his 3rd start in Soph Tyler Bass. He did not fare that well in his 2nd start, a 27-16 home loss to Marshall (50%, 323, 1-2) and the Tigers are now 0-3 SU/ATS vs FBS schools. Bass is avg 186 ypg (65%) with a 5-3 ratio and has also rushed for 161 (4.6). Mem should get workhorse RB Steele (119, 5.0) back here after he missed the L/2. UCF has a large ST’s edge (#4-102) and that could be the difference in what we expect to be a close game.
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